Beyond ASPECT

Turning data into decisions for adaptation planning.

01

ASPECT is a four-year Horizon Europe project dedicated to pioneering a new generation of climate information by bridging the gap between seasonal forecasts and long-term projections into a single, seamless 30-year vision.

02

By working closely with Super Users across sectors such as agriculture, finance, and governance, the project translates "black box" science into Actionable Intelligence calibrated to real-world operational needs and planning horizons.

03

This handbook serves as the project's legacy, providing interactive tools and intelligible narratives to guide organizations through the tools and knowledge needed to build long-term climate resilience.

Enjoy the exploration!

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Δ°C vs
1991–2020
+3+2+10−1−2−3
What does "Seamlessness" mean?

‘Seamlessness’ explained

Is the connection of seasonal (months), climate (decadal) and multidecadal (10-30 years) models into a single, consistent, and unified framework. 

WEATHER → SEASONAL
Days-weeks → Months

Short-range forecasts (days to weeks) bridging into seasonal outlooks. Driven by atmospheric dynamics with high spatial resolution. The foundation of daily decision-making — from agriculture scheduling to emergency response planning.

Click another stage on the globe to see how it connects.
Interlocking timescales for smarter decisions

Our seamless vision

Climate adaptation isn’t just about the coming decades; it starts with the decisions we make today. ASPECT bridges the gap between disparate data horizons, moving beyond the ‘black box’ of complex science to provide a unified, seamless framework. 

By connecting seasonal variations with long-term climate trends, we create a cohesive foundation for planning. When these scientific ‘gears’ work together, we translate raw data into clear, usable information for climate risk decisions.

Click on a gear to explore
Think of it like a clock: the second hand (Seasonal) tells you what's coming in the next months, but the hour hand (Multidecadal) tells you where you'll be in 30 years. You need all three gears to see the full picture.
Click a gear above to see what it captures.
Click on a stakeholder to learn more
Policymakers
Businesses
Civil Society
Policymakers & Governance
This group includes regional authorities and government officials responsible for ensuring public safety and territorial resilience. They utilize long-term climate projections to guide strategic infrastructure investments and design regional adaptation plans. Their decisions aim to mitigate large-scale risks, such as water scarcity and extreme heat, to protect the well-being of their communities.
Businesses & Industry
Spanning sectors from agriculture to finance and energy, these stakeholders manage commercial operations sensitive to climate fluctuations. They rely on climate intelligence to protect yields, optimize resource management, and mitigate financial risks associated with extreme weather. Integrating these insights allows them to maintain operational stability and build long-term economic resilience.
Civil Society & Humanitarian Response
This category comprises humanitarian organizations and community leaders dedicated to disaster response and social welfare. They translate climate data into proactive resource allocation to protect vulnerable populations before disaster strikes. Their work focuses on mapping local vulnerabilities and enhancing community-level readiness for events like heatwaves or floods.
A shared reliance on climate intelligence

Who we empower

Whether you are a mayor or a business owner, your decisions depend on reliable climate intelligence

The people behind ASPECT

The scientists' voices

Climate services are becoming increasingly important for helping society prepare for future challenges. But how do climate forecasts work? How can scientists connect information across different timescales, translate global climate projections into local insights, and turn complex model outputs into practical tools for decision-makers?

Researchers from across the ASPECT consortium share the science behind the project in their own words. Through a series of short conversations, they explain how climate information is made more continuous, more local, and ultimately more useful for society.

Time
Dr. Beena Balan Sarojini
University of Oxford
How do we connect forecasts across months, years and decades?
Dr. Beena Balan Sarojini explores one of the central challenges of climate prediction: how to connect information across different timescales. Bringing these sources together into a seamless stream of information allows users to access more consistent and reliable guidance for long-term planning and risk management.
"A single forecast can provide information for a few months ahead. A user might need information for ten years."
"It is like traffic merging from different lanes into a single lane."
"Scientists call this seamless climate information."
Place
Yi-Chi Wang
SMHI — Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
How do we bring climate information from the global scale to the local scale?
Yi-Chi Wang (SMHI) explains why global climate models are not always detailed enough to support decisions at regional and local levels. Through downscaling, climate information can be translated from broad global projections into insights relevant for cities, regions, and communities.
"Global climate models cannot really resolve local-scale features."
"Downscaling links large-scale climate information with local-scale climate information."
"Dynamical downscaling can provide city-level and even street-level information."
Action
Carlos Delgado
Barcelona Supercomputing Center — BSC
How do we turn climate information into decisions and adaptation?
Carlos Delgado (BSC) focuses on the final step of the journey: transforming climate information into practical decision support. From agriculture and water management to humanitarian action and finance, tailored climate indicators help organisations understand future risks and identify adaptation measures.
"We are trying to create a seamless product with consistent information from months, seasons and years ahead."
"With the model output, we create tailored indicators that can better support decisions."
"Climate information can support adaptation measures to minimise the risks associated with climate variations."
Click a step to follow the journey
Critical
Thresholds
Seamless
Engine
Actionable
Intelligence
Critical Thresholds
It all begins with a question specific to your operations. We don't just provide generic data; we identify your Critical Thresholds. "What happens if temperatures drop below zero exactly during bud-break?". "What level of rainfall will overwhelm the city's drainage system?". Pinpointing these limits is the first step in turning climate risk into a proactive strategy.
The Seamless Engine
Once the challenge is defined, our Seamless Engine takes over. Rather than looking at fragmented data, we bridge the gap between seasonal weather and long-term projections into a single, coherent flow, covering horizons from 3 months to 30 years. It is like watching a "movie" of the future climate rather than disconnected photos: we bring global trends down to your local reality through high-resolution downscaling.
The final result is Actionable Intelligence: information ready for immediate use. You won't receive raw data strings, but a clear mapping of future probabilities calibrated to your specific activities. Whether you are choosing a more resilient crop variety or planning multi-decadal urban infrastructure, you will what you need to plan around climate uncertainty.
For expert users and researchers seeking to explore the full scientific catalog, please visit our official repository: Explore the ASPECT Datasets.
How we tailor predictions for your decisions

Put science into action

Every sector faces unique climate challenges. The “What If” approach is our methodology for transforming vast global datasets into specific, localized intelligence that speaks directly to your needs. Instead of providing a one-size-fits-all forecast, we focus on the intersection of scientific potential and real-world operational constraints.

Interactive tools for informed decisions intro

Putting science into practice

Explore the suite of interactive tools co-developed within ASPECT. These applications transform vast global datasets into user-friendly interfaces, allowing you to revisit past weather events, monitor stress trends, and evaluate future predictions.

Tap a card to see how it works
Historical Tools
ERA Explorer
Tap to see how it works
ERA Explorer
Historical

To build resilience, we must first understand our territory's historical context. The ERA Explorer is not just an archive; it is a compass for calibrating future expectations based on changes that have already occurred.

Use caseAn urban planner in Bologna can use this tool to compare warming trends over the last 40 years against a coastal city like Ravenna. By analyzing how heatwave frequency has shifted across decades, they can justify investments in Nature-Based Solutions (NBS), such as green corridors, to mitigate the urban heat-island effect.
Launch ERA Explorer
Historical Tools
Thermal Trace
Tap to see how it works
Thermal Trace
Historical

Heat is not just a temperature; it is physiological stress. Thermal Trace maps "feels-like" temperature thresholds, transforming weather data into vital health risk indicators.

Use caseA public health official can identify how many days of "strong heat stress" occurred during the last summer compared to the historical average. This data allows for the refinement of emergency plans for vulnerable populations, precisely determining when to activate alert protocols and medical resource distribution.
Launch Thermal Trace
Historical Tools
Weather Replay
Tap to see how it works
Weather Replay
Historical

Understanding the hourly dynamics of past extreme events is fundamental to improving future reaction times. Weather Replay acts as an atmospheric "black box."

Use caseA Red Cross emergency operator can "relive" the hour-by-hour evolution of a historical storm to analyze exactly when rainfall intensity overwhelmed urban drainage systems. This forensic analysis helps optimize the pre-positioning of emergency teams before a similar event strikes again.
Launch Weather Replay
Predictive Tools
Catalogue of Decadal Prediction
Tap to see how it works
Decadal Prediction
Predictive

Long-term investments (1–10 years) often fall into an "information void." This catalogue makes decadal predictive signals visible, allowing users to see if different models agree on a specific trend.

Use caseA pension fund manager or institutional investor can assess the quality of decadal predictions for a specific European region before financing large-scale infrastructure. If models show a consistent signal of increasing drought, the manager can mandate specific adaptation measures to protect long-term asset value.
Launch Decadal Catalogue
Predictive Tools
Catalogue of Seasonal to Decadal (S2D) Prediction
Tap to see how it works
S2D Prediction
Predictive

This application embodies the core ASPECT mission: eliminating the "jumps" between short-term and long-term forecasts to create a single, coherent narrative for the next 30 years.

Use caseAn agricultural manager can use this unified dashboard to determine if a predicted spring frost is an isolated incident or part of a shift in natural variability that will require changing vine varieties over the next 20 years. This enables a move from emergency management to a structural adaptation strategy.
Launch S2D Catalogue
Ask the Glossary
Type an ASPECT term to see its plain-English meaning

Not sure where to start? Try one of these:

All terms
Complex climate science, translated

Speak Our Language

Climate science is full of highly technical terms, but getting to grips with the research shouldn’t be a barrier. We have gathered the core concepts behind ASPECT’s scientific framework below. Use the search bar to find intuitive explanations and simple analogies designed to help you understand these concepts better.

A pact between science and society

Listening to the Frontlines

In this section, you will find the testimonials of those who have put ASPECT’s seamless predictions to the test across key sectors: humanitarian response, agriculture, and regional governance. In a rapidly changing climate, it is essential to listen to the voices of those managing our economic and social systems. This is more than just data sharing; it is a pact between science and society to ensure we are not just reacting to crises, but actively preparing for the future. Enjoy the exploration!

A pact between science and society

Listening to the Frontlines

In this section, you will find the testimonials of those who have put ASPECT’s seamless predictions to the test across key sectors: humanitarian response, agriculture, and regional governance. In a rapidly changing climate, it is essential to listen to the voices of those managing our economic and social systems. This is more than just data sharing; it is a pact between science and society to ensure we are not just reacting to crises, but actively preparing for the future. Enjoy the exploration!

Summer Wyatt-Buchan
Climate Adaptation and Resilience Manager at the British Red Cross

Summer is on a mission to make climate intelligence a natural part of the British Red Cross. By teaming up with ASPECT, she's helped translate intricate science into a clear roadmap for readiness, giving her teams the tools they need to act early and keep communities safe in our changing climate.

We need tools that don't just describe a hazard, but explain when conditions are likely to cross thresholds where humanitarian consequences will begin.
ASPECT is helping us move from reactive crisis response to anticipatory humanitarian action, positioning our resources earlier and reducing the harm communities experience before it becomes an emergency.
Because the tool was co-designed and user-tested with our own staff, it genuinely reflects our operational reality and builds climate literacy across our teams.
Explore the Evidence
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Explore the Evidence
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Explore the Evidence